La bibliothèque numérique kurde (BNK)
Retour au resultats
Imprimer cette page

World Food Programme Regional Market Survey for the Middle East


Éditeur : WFP Date & Lieu : 2009, Rome
Préface : Pages : 108
Traduction : ISBN :
Langue : AnglaisFormat : 210x295 mm
Code FIKP : Liv. En.Thème : Général

Présentation
Table des Matières Introduction Identité PDF
World Food Programme Regional Market Survey for the Middle East

World Food Programme Regional Market Survey for the Middle East

Marcus Marktanner

WFP


This study analyzes the food markets of Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Iran, Iraq, and Yemen (ME-ODC Countries). These countries cover the Middle Eastern part of the area covered by the operational activities of the ODC, which also extends to North Africa and the Caucasus. Despite some similarities, such as adverse climatic conditions for agricultural production, the countries are generally very different and confronted with different problems. Each country therefore requires a substantial amount of separate treatment. The objective of the study is to better understand the dynamics of the food markets of these countries, particularly in light of the recent food price inflation. The findings shall help the World Food Program (WFP) to identify appropriate strategies for contingency planning, emergency preparedness, and the formulation of response policies.

1.2. Particular Challenges As many other economies, the countries of this study ...


Table des Matières


Table of contents


Introduction / 1

1.1. Definition of Project / 1
1.2. Particular Challenges / 1
1.3. Specific Questions / 2
1.4. Data and Methodology / 3

2. The Food Price Crisis – A Brief Overview of Main Arguments / 4
2.1. Rising Demand / 4
2.2. Shift in Consumption Pattern / 6
2.3. Higher Energy, Transportation, and Fertilizer Costs / 7
2.4. Biofuel / 8
2.5. Climate Change / 12
2.6. Water Scarcity / 13
2.7. Declining Food Reserves and Speculation / 14
2.8. Dollar Depreciation / 16

3. The State of Agricultural Supply in ODC Countries / 17
3.1. Preliminary Remarks / 17
3.2. Where do ME-ODC Countries Stand? / 18

4. More in Depth Analysis of ODC Countries / 24
4.1. Overview / 24
4.2. Lebanon / 24
4.2.1. General Economic Conditions / 24
4.2.2. The State of Food Security / 26
4.2.3. Market and Trade Overview / 27
4.3. Syria / 30
4.3.1. General Economic Conditions / 30
4.3.2. The State of Food Security / 30
4.3.3. Market and Trade Overview / 32
4.4. Jordan / 34
4.4.1. General Economic Conditions / 34
4.4.2. The State of Food Security / 34
4.4.3. Market and Trade Overview / 35
4.5. Iran / 37
4.5.1. General Economic Conditions / 37
4.5.2. The State of Food Security / 38
4.5.3. Market and Trade Overview / 39
4.6. Iraq / 40
4.6.1. General Economic Conditions / 40
4.6.2. The State of Food Security / 41
4.6.3. Market Overview / 43
4.7. Yemen / 44
4.7.1. General Economic Conditions / 44
4.7.2. Food Security / 46
4.7.3. Market Overview / 47
4.8. Palestine / 48
4.8.1. General Economic Conditions / 48
4.8.2. Food Security / 49
4.8.3. Market Overview / 50
4.9. Summary / 51

5. Food Crisis, Market Dynamics, and Policy Options / 54
5.1. Introduction / 54
5.2. How Efficient are Markets? / 54
5.3. How do Suppliers React to Rising Food Prices? / 56
5.3.1. Supply Adjustment in Theory / 56
5.3.2. Smuggling / 57
5.3.3. Hoarding / 58
5.3.4. Charity based Supply / 59
5.4. How do Consumers react to Rising Food Prices? / 59
5.4.1. Demand Adjustment in Theory/ 59
5.4.2. A Snapshot of the Food Price Rises in ODC Countries / 60
5.4.3. Substitution Effects / 61
5.5. Recommended Short and Long Term Policies to Fight Food Price Inflation / 62
5.5.1. What Government Should Do in Theory / 62
5.5.2. Agrarian Reforms / 62
5.5.3. Family Planning / 64
5.5.4. Income Redistribution / 65
5.5.5. Building Transportation Infrastructure / 67
5.5.6. Building Financial Infrastructure / 67
5.5.7. Short Term Response Policies / 68
5.6. Response Policies in Practice / 69
5.6.1. Tax Reductions / 70
5.6.2. Use of Buffer Stocks / 70
5.6.3. Export Bans / 70
5.6.4. Cash Transfers / 71
5.6.5. Food-for-Work Programs / 71
5.6.6. Food Stamps / 72
5.6.7. School Feeding / 72

6. Assessment of the Social Cost of the 2006-2008 Food Price Crisis / 72
6.1. Methodology / 72
6.2. Discussion of Results / 73
6.3. Application of Results to ODC Countries / 74
6.4. Final Word of Caution / 78

7. Concluding Policy Recommendations / 78
7.1. Contingency Planning / 78
7.2. Emergency Preparedness / 80
7.3. Crisis Response Policies / 81

8. References / 83

9. Appendix / 87



List of figures

Figure 1: Population Weighted Per Capita Income of China and India and IMF Food Price Index (2005 = 100) / 5
Figure 2: Estimated World Import Growth of Selected Commodities over 2005-2007 Average / 6
Figure 3: Ammonia (USD/ton) and Gas Prices (Mont Belvieu, TX Propane Spot Price FOB, Cents per Gallon), January 2000=100 / 7
Figure 4: Pros and Cons of Biofuel / 8
Figure 5: OECD Biofuel Production and Feedstock Consumption Forecasts / 9
Figure 6: Simulations of Changes of World Prices of Feed Stock Crops and Sugar in 2020 / 10
Figure 7: Calorie Availability Changes in 2020 / 10
Figure 8: World Population and World Food Production Index (1961-2004) / 11
Figure 9: Agricultural Productivity by 2080 (with carbon fertilization, less pessimistic view) / 13
Figure 10: Water Scarcity / 14
Figure 11: Stock-to Use Ratios and Prices / 15
Figure 12: Food Price Incex and USD/EUR Exchange Rate (Jan 2005=100) / 16
Figure 13: Internally Displaced in Iraq / 42
Figure 14: Land Inequality vs. Cereal Yield / 63
Figure 15: Residual Agricultural Productivity and Population Growth Rate / 65
Figure 16: Estimated Food Inflation Elasticities / 74


 


List of tables

Table 1: Relative Agricultural Productivity in ODC Countries / 20
Table 2: Elasticity of Cereal Yield to various Determinants / 23
Table 3: Development Potentials of Credit Markets and Transportation Infrastructure / 23
Table 4: Lebanon’s Top-Ten Agri-Food Imports in 2006 / 29
Table 5: Lebanon’s Major Import Partners of Basic Foods in 2004 / 29
Table 6: Syria’s Top-Five Agri-Food Imports (2003) / 33
Table 7: Syria’s Major Import Partners of Basic Foods (2004) / 33
Table 8: Jordan’s Major Import Partners of Basic Foods (2004) / 36
Table 9: Iran’s Major Import Partners of Basic Foods (2004) / 39
Table 10: Yemen’s Major Import Partners of Basic Foods (2004) / 48
Table 11: Agriculture and Food Security among ME-ODC Countries – Stylized Facts / 52
Table 12: Relative Food Share Expenditures as an Indicator for Market Efficiency / 55
Table 13: Marginal Increases of Total Revenues to 1% Increases of Price / 59
Table 14: Snapshot of Food Price and General Inflation as Reported in Local Newspapers / 61
Table 15: Undernourishment and Income Inequality / 66
Table 16: Short Term Response Policies / 69
Table 17: Food Price Elasticity of Undernourishment (Pooled OLS double log regression) / 73
Table 18: Estimation of Socioeconomic Impacts of Food Price Crisis on ODC Countries / 76

 



List of appendix items


Appendix Item 1: Data Description / 87
Appendix Item 2: Agricultural Productivity Regressions / 88
Appendix Item 3: Regression Results Food Expenditure Shares / 90
Appendix Item 4: Cereal Yield vs. Land Inequality / 90
Appendix Item 5: Cereal Yield vs. Fertility / 91
Appendix Item 6: Compilation of Socioeconomic Indicators of ODC Countries / 92

 




Fondation-Institut kurde de Paris © 2018
BIBLIOTHEQUE
Informations pratiques
Informations légales
PROJET
Historique
Partenaires
LISTE
Thèmes
Auteurs
Éditeurs
Langues
Revues