Dear Mr. Chairman: At your direction, the staff of the Committee on Foreign Relations conducted a review of the present situation in the Persian Gulf. Toward that end, staff members visited Iraq, the Soviet Union, and all six of the nations on the western side of the Gulf. Staff also visited the United States Central Command in Florida, the headquarters of the Middle East Force in the Persian Gulf, and the U.S.S. Ranger task group in the Gulf of Oman.
The resulting report covers the range of Persian Gulf...
Contents
Letter of Transmittal / v Executive Summary / vii
I. Overvi.ew: The Stakes in the Gulf / 1 A. Significance of the Gulf as Reservoir and Passageway / 1 B. Comparative Significance for Western Oil Importers / 2 C. Signific.ance of the Iran•lraq War / 2 D. Sign.ificance of the Tanker War / 3 E. Likelihood and Effect of an Iranian Move to Close the Gulf / 4 F. Potential for U.S. Accommodation with Iran / 5
II. The Iran-Iraq War / 7 A. Historical Background / 7 B. Iraq's Military Situatiou / 9 1. General Observations / 9 2. The Southern Front: Decisive Battlefield / 10 3. The North: War and Insurrection / 15 4. The Central Sector: New Vulnerability / 17 5. The Home Front: Iraq Behind the Lines / 18 6. The Ba'ath Regime: Survival Through Repression / 19 C. American Policy / 21 1. General Observations / 21 2. President Reagan's "Strategic Initiative" to Iran / 22 3. The Worst CaSe Scenario / 23 4. The United Nations Option / 24
III. The Geopolitics of the Gulf States / 25 A. A World of Vulnerability / 25 B. The Internal Shi'a Threat / 26 C. Regional Views of the Iran-Iraq War / 27 D. The Gulf Cooperation Council / 28 E. Attitudes Toward the United States / 29 F. Attitudes Toward the Soviets / 31 G. Military Status of the Gulf States / 31 H. Pressure for Arms Sales / 34
IV. The U.S. Role in the Gulf / 36 A. The Traditional U.S. Military Presence / 36 B. Reflagging / 36 C. The Iranian Threat / 39 D. The Expansion of U.S. and Other Forces / 41 E. American Policy: Shifting Rationales / 42
V. Appendix / 44 A. The Attack on U.S.S. Stark / 44 B. Chronology of Major Events / 44 C. United Nations Security Council Resolution 598 / 47
Table l.-Ship Attacks in the Persian Gulf. 1981-87 / 48 Table 2.-Dependency on Persian Gulf Oil, 1986 / 48 Table 3.-Disposition of Persian Gulf Oil, 1986 / 49
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
October 9, 1987
Senator Claiborne Pell, Chairman, Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate, Washington, DC.
Dear Mr. Chairman: At your direction, the staff of the Committee on Foreign Relations conducted a review of the present situation in the Persian Gulf. Toward that end, staff members visited Iraq, the Soviet Union, and all six of the nations on the western side of the Gulf. Staff also visited the United States Central Command in Florida, the headquarters of the Middle East Force in the Persian Gulf, and the U.S.S. Ranger task group in the Gulf of Oman.
The resulting report covers the range of Persian Gulf issues before the Committee, including the military and political implications of reflagging and escorting 11 Kuwaiti tankers, recent developments in the war between Iran and Iraq, the status of U.S. naval deployments in the Persian Gulf, prospective arms sales to Gulf littoral nations, the status of diplomatic efforts to end the Iran-Iraq war, and the political and military consequences of Reagan Administration arms sales to Iran.
In connection with the study, Peter W. Galbraith traveled extensively through Iraq to gain a picture of that country's vulnerability in the conflict with Iran. His itinerary took him to Basra and the southern region, through the principal Shi'a cities of the South, to Baghdad, and deep into Kurdistan. In Baghdad, Galbraith had appointments with senior Iraqi officials in the Foreign Ministry, Oil Ministry, and National Assembly. Galbraith also visited Moscow, where he had discussions with Soviet officials on the Gulf.
Meanwhile, George W. Ashworth and Gerald E. Connolly traveled to all the Southern Gulf littoral states-Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Oman. At each stop they had appointments with ministerial rank officials responsible for foreign policy, defense, and petroleum iSl3ues. In addition, Messrs. Ashworth and Connolly visited U.S.S. LaSalle, the flagship of United States naval forces in the Persian Gulf, and U.S.S. Ranger, the aircraft carrier stationed in the Gulf of Oman.
Throughout the region, staff benefitted from the expertise and logistical assistance of able U.S. diplomats.
Our trip coincided with a time of increasing tension in the Persian Gulf, and the Committee will undoubtedly be seized with Gulf related issues for some time to come. We hope this report will assist the Committee in its deliberations.
Sincerely,
George W. Ashworth. Gerald E. Connolly. Peter W. Galbraith.
Committee on Foreign Relations
War in the Persian Gulf: the U.S. Takes Sides
Government Printing Office
U.S. Government Printing Office War in the Persian Gulf: the U.S. Takes Sides Committee on Foreign Relations
100th Congress 1st Session Committee Print S. Prt. 100-60
A Staff Report to the Commıttee on Foreign Relations United States Senate
November 1987
Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Relations
U.S. Government Printing Office 78-207 Washington: 1987
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, Congreosionai Salee Office U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402
Committee on Foreign Relations
Claiborne Pell, Rhode Island, Chairman
Joseph R. Biden, Jr., Delaware Paul S. Sarbanes, Maryland Alan Cranston, California Christopher J. Dodd, Connecticut John F. Kerry, Massachusetts Paul Simon, Illinois Terry Sanford, North Carolina Brock Adams, Washington Daniel P. Moynihan, New York Jesse Helms, North Carolina Richard G. Lugar, Indiana Nancy L. Kassebaum, Kansas Rudy Boschwitz, Minnesota Larry Pressler, South Dakota Frank H. Murkowski, Alaska Paul S. Trible, Jr., Virginia Daniel J. Evans, Washington Mitch Mcconnell, Kentucky
Gekyld B. Christianson, Staff Director James W. Nance, Minority Staff Director (II)
