Contents
Maps / xi
Figures / xiii
Tables / xv
Abbreviations and Acronyms / xxi
Note on Transliteration / xxiii
Editor's Preface / xxv
1. Turkey, the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin, and the Southeast Anatolia Project / 1
The Euphrates (Firat) River / 3
The Tigris River / 6
Turkish National Hydrodevelopment Programs / 8
Strategy for the Future / 16
2. The Southeast Anatolia Project: An Overview / 18
Overview of GAP / 19
The Development of GAP: A Chronological Review / 25
Financing and Associated Problems / 30
The Euphrates Portion of GAP / 34
The Tigris Portion of GAP / 43
Achieving the Goals of GAP / 43
3. Industry and Agriculture in the Southeastern Anatolia Project Region / 46
Development Overview / 47
Industry / 48
Potable Water for Domestic Use / 53
Agriculture in the GAP Region / 56
Prospects / 74
4. The Impact of Development upon the Waters of the Euphrates River and Its Tributaries / 77
Characteristics of Middle East River System Use / 78
River Systems—An Overview / 82
Organization of the Analysis / 83
5. Average Annual Discharge of the Euphrates River: Turkey into Syria, Syria into Iraq / 85
Discharge in Turkey / 87
Flow in Syria / 89 Flow in Iraq / 100
The Average Regime / 101
Safe Values / 104
6. The Euphrates System in Syria / 106
Relative Shares of Euphrates Water: Birecik, Turkey, to Hit, Iraq / 108
The Relationship Between Euphrates Flow and That of Its Syrian Tributaries / 113
7. Water Use per Hectare and Anticipated River Depletion / 124
Methods of Computation / 125
Definition of Components / 127
Potential Evapotranspiration / 130
Water Balance / 131
8. Irrigated Agriculture in the Syrian Euphrates Drainage Basin / 143
Background to the Problem / 144
Proposed Irrigation / 145
Revisions of Proposed Irrigation Goals / 151
Production Achieved by State-Run Projects / 154
Privately Cultivated Land / 156
Water Depletion from Syrian Irrigation on the Euphrates / 164
9. The Khabur River and Its Tributaries / 167
Hydrogeology of the High Jezirah / 170
Turkish-Syrian Shares of Khabur Waters / 179
10. Static and Dynamic Views of the Euphrates River System / 192
Constraints on Dynamic Modeling / 192
A Static Model of the Euphrates River and Its Uses / 196
The Use of the Euphrates in Turkey / 215
The Use of the Euphrates in Syria / 221
A Critical Pressure Point: The Ceylanpinar/Ras al-Ayn Area / 222
"Natural Flow" of the Euphrates / 232
Sedimentation and Water Quality / 235
Conclusion / 258
11. The Years Ahead / 259
A Realistic Prognosis / 259
Status of GAP, September 1988 / 261
A Revised Schedule for GAP / 265
Financial and Managerial Aspects of GAP / 267
Future of Syrian Euphrates Development / 274
Turkey and the Middle East Pax Aquarum / 282
Appendix A. System Efficiency and Return Flow / 301
Appendix B. Natural River Flow / 307
References / 309
Index / 319
Maps
2.1. Tigris and Euphrates river system / 20
2.2. Six provinces directly affected by GAP / 21
2.3. The Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP) / 22
8.1. Irrigation regions within the Euphrates basin in Syria / 149
8.2. Resource planning units of northeastern Syria / 157
9.1. Precipitation of northeastern Syria / 169
9.2. Hydrography of northeastern Syria / 171
9.3. Streams and springs of the Jezirah / 172
9.4. The Khabur and its tributaries / 173
9.5. Aquifers in the catchment area of the Jezirah / 176
9.6. Sub-drainage basins of the Khabur / 186
9.7. Hydrologic subdivisions of the Khabur basin / 187
10.1. Headwaters of the Euphrates / 216
10.2. Hydrography of the Euphrates below Keban / 217
10.3. GAP project areas of the Lower Euphrates / 218
10.4. Named reservoirs: Karakaya and downstream / 219
10.5. Valley of the Euphrates near Meskene / 243
10.6. Groundwater hydrochemistry of the Jezirah / 249
10.7. Anions in the groundwaters of the Jezirah / 250
10.8. Cations in the groundwaters of the Jezirah / 251
11.1. Water surplus areas in the Middle East / 286
11.2. Alternate routes for the "Peace Pipeline" / 290
11.3. Runoff for 26 drainage basins of Turkey / 292
Figures
1.1. General Directorate of State Water Works (DSI) / 10
1.2. DSI regional directorate / 11
1.3. Organization of regional directorates / 12
1.4. DSI regions in Turkey / 13
1.5. Line functions within DSI / 13
4.1. Hypothetical international river use system / 79
5.1. Yearly discharge of the Euphrates / 88
5.2. Annual discharge of selected Syrian rivers / 98
6.1. Difference in discharge at Birecik and Hit / 115
6.2. Relationship between flow at Birecik and Flit / 116
6.3. Annual discharges at Birecik and Hit / 117
6.4. Discharge of the Euphrates at Birecik and Hit / 118
6.5. Flow at Birecik and Hit / 119
6.6. Two-year averages at Birecik and Hit / 120
6.7. Discharge of the Euphrates at Hit / 121
7.1. Water balance for Siverek / 136
9.1. Geologic cross-section of the Jezirah / 174
9.2. Hydrology of the Khabur basin / 188
9.3. Changes of actual and natural flow / 190
10.1. Water subtractions: Euphrates River / 212
10.2. Stream flow of the Khabur at Suwar / 224
10.3. Ras al-Ayn exhaustion time / 226
10.4. Proposed hydrologic relationships in Ceylanpinar (Ras al-Ayn) region / 228
10.5. Proposed hydrologic relationships in Ras al-Ayn (Jezirah) region / 229
10.6. Mean monthly flow of the Euphrates at Hit / 236
10.7. Flood frequency of Euphrates at Hit / 240
10.8. Low-water frequency curve of Euphrates at Hit / 241
10.9. Euphrates sediment discharge at Deir ez-Zor / 242
10.10. Dissolved solids concentration for the Athi at ol Donyo Sabuk / 244
10.11. Salt content of the Sevier in Utah / 245
10.12. Salinity and discharge at Hit / 245
10.13. USDA classification of irrigation waters / 247
10.14. Water budget of the Euphrates / 254
11.1. Projected depletion of the Euphrates / 268
11.2. Population in SW Asia and NE Africa / 285
11.3. Runoff of the 26 drainage basins of Turkey / 293
Tables
1.1. Dams constructed prior to Republic era / 9
1.2. Population by DSI region / 14
1.3. Increase in irrigated areas / 17
2.1. Benefits expected after river development / 23
2.2. Electrical capacity and production / 24
2.3. Existing irrigation from ponds and undammed waters / 29
2.4. Projected potential - Southeast Anatolia region / 30
2.5. Average sizes of selected settlements in GAP region / 33
2.6. Technical parameters for major dams on the Euphrates in Turkey / 36
2.7. Additional technical parameters for Ataturk Dam and power plant / 39
2.8. The world's largest dams / 40
2.9. Urfa irrigation tunnel / 42
2.10. Dams and hydroelectric power plants in Tigris basin in Turkey / 44
3.1. Provinces ranked by industrial establishments, employees, and value-added / 48
3.2. Functional regions of Turkey / 49
3.3. Small-scale manufacturing establishments - Adiyaman / 51
3.4. Small-scale manufacturing establishments - Diyarbakir / 52
3.5. Small-scale manufacturing establishments - Gaziantep / 52
3.6. Small-scale manufacturing establishments - Mardin / 53
3.7. Small-scale manufacturing establishments - Sanliurfa / 54
3.8. Small-scale manufacturing establishments - Siirt / 54
3.9. Large-scale industrial establishments in GAP provinces / 55
3.10. Water consumption in GAP provincial centers / 56
3.11. Future water needs of provincial centers / 56
3.12. Employment by economic sector in GAP provinces / 57
3.13. Types of agricultural crops in GAP region / 58
3.14. Land classification in GAP provinces / 59
3.15. Arable and cultivated land in GAP region / 60
3.16. Major production groups in GAP region / 61
3.17. Cereal production in GAP region / 62
3.18. Wheat production in GAP region / 63
3.19. Barley production in GAP region / 63
3.20. Vegetable production in GAP region / 64
3.21. Irrigated land in GAP region / 64
3.22. Anticipated crop production resulting from GAP / 65
3.23. Number of tractors in GAP provinces / 66
3.24. Levels of farm mechanization / 67
3.25. Pieces of equipment per tractor / 68
3.26. Number of agricultural holdings in GAP region / 69
3.27. Number of animals in GAP provinces / 70
3.28. Categories of landholding in GAP region / 71
3.29. Size and ownership of agricultural enterprises in Urfa province / 72
3.30. Size of farming operations in Merkez and Akcakale Ilceler / 73
3.31. Distribution of landless families in Urfa II, and Merkez and Akcakale Ilceler / 74
5.1. Discharge of Euphrates from Birecik to Hit / 86
5.2. Discharge of Euphrates at Birecik / 90
5.3. Discharge of Euphrates at Hit / 92
5.4. Monthly and annual discharges of Euphrates at Hit / 94
5.5. Discharge of Euphrates in Syria / 97
5.6. Discharge data for selected rivers in Syria / 99
5.7. Differences in data regarding discharge of Euphrates at Hit / 101
5.8. Cumulative mean annual discharges at Hit / 102
5.9. Ten-year average discharges of Euphrates at Hit / 103
5.10. Estimate of Euphrates flow to the year 1973 / 105
6.1. Euphrates discharge from Birecik to Hit / 108
6.2. Yearly flows of the Sajur/Sacir River / 109
6.3. Yearly flows of the Qweik/Balik River / 111
6.4. Yearly flows of the Balikh/Culap River / 112
6.5. Yearly flows at Birecik and Hit / 114
7.1. Irrigation water needs - "Sulama Suyu Gereksinimi" / 126
7.2. Interpretations of "Sulama Suyu Gereksinimi" / 128
7.3. Potential evapotranspiration: Turkish and Syrian locations / 132
7.4. Annual water fund depletion / 134
7.5. Water balance for Siverek / 137
7.6. Water balance for Urfa / 138
7.7. Water balance for Ceylanpinar / 139
7.8. Water balance for Nusaybin / 140
8.1. Irrigated land projects in Syrian Euphrates drainage area / 146
8.2. Irrigated land in Syrian Euphrates project area / 150
8.3. The Euphrates Valley pilot/pioneer project / 151
8.4. Dams in Euphrates basin in Syria / 153
8.5. Status report on Euphrates irrigation project / 155
8.6. "Intensively cultivated land" in selected regions of northern Syria / 158
8.7. Intensive agriculture: Northeast Syria / 160
8.8. On-line government project lands / 161
8.9. Water-fund depletion from evapotranspiration and related deficits / 162
8.10. Irrigated land in Euphrates drainage basin, northern Syria / 164
8.11. Sources of irrigation water in Euphrates drainage basin, northern Syria / 165
9.1. Locations, elevations, and precipitation in Syria and Turkey / 170
9.2. The Ras al-Ayn (Springs) / 177
9.3. Springs of the high Jezirah / 178
9.4. Precipitation in the basin and sub-basins of the Khabur / 180
9.5. Turkish-Syrian shares of available water in Khabur / 184
10.1. Keban Reservoir - recharge rates / 194
10.2. Keban Reservoir average evaporation and average inflow / 198
10.3. Dams, reservoirs, and irrigation on the Euphrates / 201
10.4. Variations in water use, loss, and depletion / 213
10.5. Distribution of irrigated areas of lower Euphrates project / 223
10.6. Existing irrigated land in GAP area / 233
10.7. Recorded flows at Hit / 238
10.8. Salinity at two different locations on the Euphrates / 246
10.9. Composition and concentration of salinity in Syrian Jezirah / 252
10.10. Iraq's projected share of Euphrates water / 255
10.11. Water budget: Euphrates from headwaters to the Iraqi border / 256
11.1. GAP hectarages to be irrigated / 263
11.2. Sub-unit in Harran Plain irrigation area / 264
11.3. GAP projects and river depletions / 266
11.4. Project water depletion and return flow: Syrian Euphrates and tributaries / 276
11.5. Syrian project and private water depletion and return flow / 278
11.6. Water depletion and return flows upon completion of all projects / 279
11.7. Water use on Syrian Euphrates / 281
11.8. Population growth in Middle Eastern and Northeast African countries / 284
11.9. Runoff of 26 drainage basins in Turkey / 294
A.1. System efficiency in Near Eastern irrigation systems / 302
A.2. Water use efficiencies in Egypt / 303
A.3. Urfa-Harran water use - Urfa tunnel / 304
A.4. Mardin - Ceylanpinar water use - Hilvan pumpage / 305
A.5. Return flows in Near Eastern irrigation systems / 306
B.1. Average "natural" flow at Hit / 308
Abbreviations and Acronyms
B.C.E. Before Christian Era
DSI Devlet Su Isleri (The General Directorate of State Water Works)
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization (of the United Nations)
GADEB General Authority for the Development of the Euphrates Basin
GAP Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi (Southeast Anatolia Development Project)
GNP Gross National Product
HEPP hydroelectric power plant
HES hydroelectric station
IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
PE potential evapotranspiration
RF return flow
RPU Resource Planning Unit
SAR Syrian Arab Republic
TEK Electrical Authority
TCSV Turkiye Cevre Sorunlari Vakfi (Turkish Environmental Issues Foundation)
TL Turkish lira
TS Toprak Su (General Directorate of Land and Water Development - no longer in operation)
TTRM Toprak ve Tarim Reform Mustesarligi (Secretariat for Soil and Agricultural Reform)
TUBITAK Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknik Arastirma (Turkish Foundation for Scientific and Technical Research) UAR United Arab Republic
USGS United States Geologic Survey
USAID United States Agency for International Development
EDITOR'S PREFACE
This volume, which concentrates on the Euphrates River basin in Turkey and Syria, is the first in a series on water issues in the Middle East. In it, Professors John Kolars and William Mitchell have sketched out the impressive water developments now under way in the upper reaches of the Euphrates River in Turkey. They then go on to apply sophisticated methods of analysis in order to estimate what impact these developments will have on the downstream riparians Syria and Iraq, who also, both historically and currently, have been engaged in hydraulic developments.
The complete water project, of which this present work forms a part, consists of comprehensive assessments of several of the most important hydrological basins in the Middle East: the Euphrates, Tigris, Jordan, Litani, Orontes, and Nile. Work has been conducted under the auspices of Associates for Middle East Research, Inc. (AMER), a non-profit research group in Philadelphia, and has been directed by Professor Thomas Naff of the University of Pennsylvania. The project began in 1983 with a broad-based pilot survey which was published the following year under the title Water in the Middle East: Conflict or Cooperation? (Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1984). This earliest phase of the research identified the major issues and demonstrated the need for far more detailed analysis than was possible in one slim volume collated from the available literature.
The purview of the present study, and, indeed, of the overall project, is both physical and political, including socioeconomic factors. Thus, each geographic segment is looked at twice; first, as part of its hydrologic basin to determine the physical dimensions of its water problems, then as part of the country or countries within which it falls to show the contribution of water problems to the political economy and strategic concerns of its region. The end product is an illustration of the inter-relationship between natural resources and international security.
The present volume is the first installment of a larger effort to address those Middle East water issues that the world and the peoples of the region itself can no longer afford to ignore.
The project from which the book has grown has brought together a team of specialists from the Middle East, Europe, the United States, and Australia, drawn from such disciplines as hydrology, geography, geology, engineering, history, politics, economics, sociology, demography, international relations, international law, and resources management. The work is based on extensive field data as well as information from published sources.
The results of this interdisciplinary research will be published over the next three to five years as a series of books. The present volume, on the hydrology of the upper Euphrates in Turkey and Syria, will be followed by hydrological analyses of the lower Euphrates and of the Tigris basin as they interconnect in Iraq. Future volumes will discuss the hydrology of the Jordan and Litani basins and their relationships, and the current hydrological situation in the Nile basin.
Companion volumes will examine the political economy and apparatus for water policy decision making in Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Egypt, and Sudan. These studies will give special focus to the strategic and security implications of water problems for each of the countries and for the region as a whole. The legal status of water regulation in the area will be investigated in a separate volume, which will present a compendium and commentary on the relevant treaties, legal codes, and regulatory systems that govern water management and water sharing in the Middle East. Another volume that reviews current and known future technologies will examine the extent to which technology can play a mitigating role in water problems.
Water is a resource vital to life. As any archaeologist looking for prehistoric habitation can testify, a reliable water source is the one absolute prerequisite for human settlement. It is the ultimate survival issue, a "superordinate goal" that overrides all other concerns. With populations expanding and aspirations for economic development increasing, the demand of Middle Eastern peoples on their limited water resources is already approaching the "water barrier" beyond which the need for water becomes a dominant concern. Moreover, overdrafts on existing water resources can degrade remaining supplies, reducing quality below usable levels, and actually decrease the annual amount of water available for future human consumption. In the seven years since this project began, it has increasingly been realized that the most important Middle East resource issue of the twenty-first century will be, not oil, but water.
Restricted supply of water in the Middle East has been a truism since ancient times. Scarcity, that is, the point at which water demand and its related quality of life are constrained by the inadequacy of the available supply, is already a fact in some sectors. Several countries are running a significant deficit on their water budgets which, at best, constitutes a lien against future generations and may, in the worst case scenario, destroy the existing resources for future use. The need to conserve on use of water and somehow augment supplies is very clear.
The threat to posterity and even survival that water scarcity represents is an automatic security issue for all parties. It is rooted in real human needs. When a limited water resource is shared by two nations, competition for it can be a cause of tension; when these nations are already hostile, the competition could lead to open conflict. On the other hand, the "superordinate goal" of mutual survival may compel even hostile neighbors to cooperate. Therein lies hope for agreement, but the opportunity for avoiding a regional crisis is evaporating rapidly.
There are relatively few treaties or agreed-upon international legal or political structures for settling disputes over shared resources. In this unregulated environment, conflicts of interests tend to become confrontations to be dealt with in terms of regional and global power balances. It is our belief that a holistic understanding of resource problems, including their security implications, will empower countries with options for managing their environments without recourse to conflict. This in turn will enhance the capacity of the international system to create legal and other mechanisms for the resolution of problems through accommodation.
The study of water, like other resource issues, is complex, requiring a wide range of expertise from a variety of disciplines from the hard sciences and engineering through the whole gamut of social and managerial sciences. The result of this complexity has, in the case of water, been fragmentary treatment at best, and often outright neglect.
The magnitude of the water problems and the interconnections of the water systems dictate that, for the Levantine, Anatolian, and Mesopotamian areas we are studying, only truly regional solutions will work. The essential first step in that direction is basin wide agreements. This series of publications constitutes our contribution to making such regional cooperation possible.
As with all weather-related phenomena these days, a significant unknown in the calculus that may throw all prognostications off is the so-called Greenhouse Effect, which will surely make Middle East water problems worse. It behooves planners to address the issues now, while solutions are still at least theoretically within reach.
A project of this complexity and magnitude could not have been successfully completed without the cooperation, support, and assistance of many persons, institutions, funding agencies, and governments. The Director and all of his colleagues express their gratitude to all those individuals, too numerous to list here, whose assistance was pivotal in bringing our efforts to fruition. We also wish to extend our sincerest thanks to the government of Turkey and various of its agencies who gave us enlightened access to essential data, and to the following sponsors whose contribution to our project made it all possible: The Phoebe W. Haas Foundation, Ford Foundation, Mobil Foundation, the University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation, Bechtel Corporation, Conoco Oil Company, Dow Chemical, Dresser Industries, E. I. Du Pont de Nemours and Company, Exxon Corporation, and Fluor Corporation.
Thomas Naff
Philadelphia
The Euphrates River and the Southeast Anatolia Development Project
Turkey, the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin, and the Southeast Anatolia Project
History has been said to begin at Sumer, and history today continues to be made in the combined basins of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Increasing water shortages in southwest Asia, in combination with the 'ambitious development plans of every nation found there, focus attention upon those two rivers. Constituting the region's major sources of water, their proper management in the years ahead will help determine the welfare and political stability of much of the Middle East.
Turkey occupies the position farthest upstream on both rivers. Almost all the waters of the Euphrates and a major portion of the waters of the Tigris come from within Turkey's borders. Unlike many Middle Eastern countries, Turkey is petroleum poor but water rich. The nation receives about 509 billion m3 of precipitation annually, of which 38 percent (185 billion m3) ends up as surface runoff. Much of this flows into the USSR, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and the surrounding seas. Because the Turks estimate that only a little over half of this surface runoff (95 out of 185 billion m3) can be used for domestic, irrigation, and industrial purposes within Turkey, the international implications of the situation are obvious (DSI 1984b, Tables 4 and 4.1, 20).
Turkey is under enormous pressure to develop its hydro-resources (Kolars 1986a). Total energy use in Turkey from 1975 to …
The major challenge facing the Middle East today is competition for water. Water, not oil, is the Middle East's most vital natural resource. Its scarcity and poor distribution could draw the entire region into turmoil.
In the first volume of a series entitled Water: The Middle East Imperative, John F. Kolars and William A. Mitchell explore water use and supply in the Euphrates basin and examine recent develop-ment projects on the Euphrates River.
By far the largest undertaking on the Euphrates is Turkey's Southeast Anatolia Project, most commonly known as GAP. GAP will irrigate over 1.7 million hectares of new land, doubling Turkey's energy production and providing huge agricultural surpluses that Turkey hopes to sell to its Arab neighbors.
However, when this project is in full operation, the flow of the Euphrates will be greatly reduced and the quality of the water seriously affected. Similar, if smaller, developments in Syria further complicate use of the river.
In this revealing and sometimes startling account, Kolars and Mitchell describe in detail not only GAP but also other major hydraulic projects in Syria. Using a variety of analytical techniques, they attempt to predict how the projects and the results they bring about will introduce irrevocable changes in the region.
The authors also pay close attention to the domestic and international political developments paralleling the implementation of GAP. This is a crucial book for all concerned with the Mideast and its future.
Note on Transliteration
In rendering proper names from Middle Eastern languages into English, two standards have been used.
For Turkish, the names have been given as they are spelled in modern Turkish, with European characters but minus the diacritics. This is an aid to the reader who may find these names on modern Turkish maps.
For Arabic and other languages that utilize non-European characters, the nomenclature adheres as closely as possible to current usage as found in reputable nonspecialist journals in the English language, again without diacritics or special symbols. Our reason for this is simple: The expert doesn't need these aids; the nonexpert cannot use them.
