Disarming Iraq, monitoring power and resistance
Michael V. Deaver
Library of Congress
The flickering image of a boiler-like machine on a television screen at a United Nations office here [Baghdad] indicates that the monitoring system imposed on Iraqi industry four years ago [1991] is achieving its aim of preventing President Saddam Hussein from building weapons of mass destruction.... A little green line, constantly expanding and contracting at the bottom of the screen at the United Nations office, means the picture is being relayed live from a camera trained on an instrument known as a vacuum furnace on a factory floor somewhere in Iraq.1
Last month [December 1997], the United Nations weapons inspectors thought they were closing in on a long-sought prize: computer hard disks that contain the records of Iraq's entire program of weapons of mass destruction.... But the Iraqis stalled for 20 minutes, as inspectors watched from a distance while the old hard drives were whisked away and replaced with new ones. When the inspectors finally got permission to enter, the equipment ran only computer games.2
.....
Michael V. Deaver is Visiting Lecturer and Academic Coordinator of the Civic Education Project in Russia. He has traveled extensively in the Middle East and has taught courses on international relations and comparative politics in Russia as a Civic Education Project fellow for three years.
Contents
Illustrations /ix
Acknowledgments / xi
Abbreviations / xiii
Chapter 1: Introduction / 1
Changing Power Relations / 2
Analyzing the Disarmament of Iraq / 3
Organization / 6
Chapter 2: Analyzing Power Relations / 9
International Relations Theory / 9
General Tools of Analysis / 15
Case Specific: Monitoring and Resistance / 18
Conclusion / 27
Chapter 3: Iraq's Military Development / 31
Motives, Means and Weapons / 31
International Reaction to Iraq's Invasion of Kuwait / 42
Chapter 4: The Security Council and Iraq: Structuring Power Relations / 47
Delegated Disarmament / 48
Imposed Disarmament: Rules and Power / 53
The Iraqi Government's Reaction / 59
Diplomatic Interaction / 65
Conclusion / 72
Chapter 5: Monitoring Tacties / 77
Implementation / 78
Resistance / 90
Conclusion / 98
Chapter 6: Tactical Interaction and Dynamics / 103
Competitive Adjustment / 104
Interlocked Spirals / 114
Trench Warfare / 115
Exhaustion? / 120
Conclusion / 123
Chapter 7: The End and New Beginnings / 129
Tactics, Dynamics, and the Struggle to Disarm Iraq / 129
Future Research / 139
Bibliography / 141
Index / 147
Illustrations
Figures
2.1 Characteristics of Relations within Modes of Power / 17
2.2 Tactics and Modes / 19
2.3 Targets of Resistance / 24
4.1 Tactics at the Diplomatic Level / 69
5.1 SCR 687 Disarmament Requirements / 79
5.2 Visibility Tactics and Knowledge Flows in Stage 1 / 83
5.3 Visibility Tactics and Knowledge Flows in Stage 2 / 86
5.4 / Iraqi Tactics Targeting UN Monitoring Tactics / 96
7.1 Ideal Types of Power Relations / 131
Tables
3.1 Iraqi Armed Forces Personnel / 32
3.2 Iraqi Arms Imports / 38
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The task of thanking all of those who have made this text possible is a very difficult one. I am particularly indebted to Timothy Mitchell and Samir Haj, who took a special interest in my work and who encouraged me to think critically and to find my own voice. Ben Hunt has been very helpful in the struggle to complete and to make comprehensible this text; the critical comments and other assistance offered by Leah Haus and Youssef Cohen are appreciated as well. I also benefitted from the atmosphere of intellectual innovation and critical thought that prevailed among the graduate students of the Department of Politics and the Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies at New York University. This text has evolved greatly over time and has benefitted from the numerous comments offered when portions of it have been presented at professional meetings; regrettably, it is not possible here to thank all of those whose comments contributed to the refining of the arguments made here. I have also profited from my discussions of this topic with my Russian students, who pressed me to explain what I considered to be well known and taught me a new perspective on the disarmament of Iraq: my thanks go out to my students at Petrozavodsk State University, Tyumen State University, and Omsk State University, Russia's future leaders. An early version of the manuscript was greatly revised in light of suggestions made by Bridget Julian; the comments of anonymous readers were likewise helpful in giving the text some clarity. Finally, I wish to thank my family for being so patient and tolerant with me while I have worked on this project over the years.
Abbreviations
ACDA United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
APC armored personnel carrier
BMVC Baghdad Monitoring and Verification Center
EMIS Electromagnetic Isotope Separation
GPS global positioning system
HUMINT human intelligence
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
MINT imagery intelligence
IMT Interim Monitoring Team
MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime
NPT Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
OMV ongoing monitoring and verification
OSI on-site inspection
SCR Security Council resolution
Scud a type of Soviet-made ballistic missile
SIGINT signals intelligence
SIPRI Stockholm International Peace and Research Institute
Stage 1 information gathering and assessment
Stage 2 disposal of proscribed items
Stage 3 ongoing monitoring and verification
UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research
UNIKOM United Nations Iraq-Kuwait Observation Mission
UNMOVIC United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission
UNSCOM United Nations Special Commission
WMD weapons of mass destruction
1
Introduction
The flickering image of a boiler-like machine on a television screen at a United Nations office here [Baghdad] indicates that the monitoring system imposed on Iraqi industry four years ago [1991] is achieving its aim of preventing President Saddam Hussein from building weapons of mass destruction.... A little green line, constantly expanding and contracting at the bottom of the screen at the United Nations office, means the picture is being relayed live from a camera trained on an instrument known as a vacuum furnace on a factory floor somewhere in Iraq.1
Last month [December 1997], the United Nations weapons inspectors thought they were closing in on a long-sought prize: computer hard disks that contain the records of Iraq's entire program of weapons of mass destruction.... But the Iraqis stalled for 20 minutes, as inspectors watched from a distance while the old hard drives were whisked away and replaced with new ones. When the inspectors finally got permission to enter, the equipment ran only computer games.2
The international reaction to the Iraqi invasion and occupation of Kuwait in August 1990 resulted in numerous binding and increasingly demanding Security Council decisions, which were implemented with vigor. Besides bringing a formal end tothe Second Gulf War (1990-1991), resolution 687 also placed a broad array of obligations upon the Iraqi government. The central aspect of this historic resolution was an ambitious set of disarmament requirements supported by provisions for intrusive implementation that were unprecedented for the United Nations (UN). Although the Security Council established a strong power relationship over Iraq to ensure the elimination of Iraq's unconventional weapons and monitoring of their means of production, the government energetically resisted.
The power struggle between Iraq and the UN over implementation of these disarmament obligations came to dominate Iraq's relations with the rest of the international community and they long remained a major issue in world politics.
Michael V. Deaver
Disarming Iraq, monitoring power and resistance
Library of Congress
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Disarming Iraq, monitoring power and resistance
Deaver, Michael
Deaver, Michael V., 1963–
Disarming Iraq: monitoring power and resistance / Michael V. Deaver
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index
ISBN 0-275-97261-5 (alk. paper)
I. Iraq-Foreign relations. 2. Nuclear disarmament-Iraq. 3. Disarmament-On-site
Inspection-Iraq. 4. Weapons of mass destruction-Iraq. 5. United Nations-Iraq. I. Title.
JZ1682.D43 2001
3 41.7' 3 3' 09 5 67-d c 21 / 00-049161
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data is available.
Copyright © 2001 by Michael V. Deaver
All rights reserved. No portion of this book may be
reproduced, by any process or technique, without
the express written consent of the publisher.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 00-049161
ISBN: 0-275-97261-5
First published in 2001
Praeger Publishers, 88 Post Road West, Westport, CT 06881
An imprint of Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc.
www.praeger.com
Printed in the United States of America
∞
The paper used in this book complies with the
Permanent Paper Standard issued by the National
Information Standards Organization (Z39.48-1984)
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Dedicated to my grandparents
George Burney Deaver
Nola Elizabeth Deaver
Arthur Embree Nagels
Mae Addie Nagels
