U.S. Policy Options for lraq

U.S. Policy Options for lraq

Olga Oliker
Keith Crane
Audra K. Grant
Terrence K. Kelly   
Andrew Rathmell
David Brannan

Rand

Iraq is the most pressing foreign and security policy issue that the United States faces today. Continued failure to make Iraq stable and secure threatens to disrupt the Middle East not by catalyzing the spread of democracy but by exporting instability and conflict. If violence continues, Iraqi neighbours will use the country as a theatre in which to pursue their own goals, including those at odds with Iraqi and U.S. interests. Iraq will remain a training ground for terrorist groups, threatening U.S. and allied security. Continued conflict in Iraq not only will remain extraordinarily costly in terms of U.S. lives and resources, but will also damage the credibility of the United States and the efficacy of U.S. forces. It also feeds perceptions around the world that the United States is engaged in a "war on Islam."
The U.S. government needs to consider alternative ...

Contents

Preface / iii
Summary / ix
Acknowledgments / xix
Abbreviations / xxi

Chapter One
Introduction / 1
The Problem of Iraq / 1
The Situation Today / 2

Chapter two
Defining and Assessing Alternative Strategies for Iraq / 11
Employ Overwhelming Force / 11
Pick and Back, Winners / 14
Partition / 16
Leave / 18
Maintain Current Efforts / 19
From Strategy to Policy / 20

Chapter three
Political Suasion / 23
Maintain a National Unity Government / 23
Prevent a Kurdish Takeover of Kirkuk / 24
Oppose the Creation of New Regions / 25
Keep Oil Revenues in the Hands of the Central Government / 27
Engaging Iraq's Neighbours / 28

Chapter four
Security: Targeting Aid and Influence / 31
Get the Ministry of Interior Under Control / 31
Improve Policing / 36
Police Organization and Recruiting / 39
Law and Order / 40
Reduce Financial Flows to Militias and Other Illegal Groups / 41
Coalition Force Employment / 43
Balance Baghdad and the Rest of Iraq / 45
Public Information / 45

Chapter Five
How Economic Policies Can Help / 47
Liberalize Refined Oil Product Prices / 47
Improve the Operations of the Oil Ministry / 49
Increase Investment in Oil Production / 50
Restructure the Oil Ministry Along Commercial Lines / 50
Improve Oil-Sector Security / 52
Concentrate U.S. Grant Aid on the Security Sector and Improving Iraqi Government Operations / 53
Follow "Clear and Hold" Operations with Local Projects, Not Make work Job Programs / 53
Give the Iraqi Government Credit / 56

Chapter Six
Policy Priorities lf-and Only lf-Violence Declines / 57
Politics and Security / 57
U.S.-Iraq Relations / 58
Continued Security Assistance / 59
Offer Broad Amnesty / 60
Demobilization, Disarmament, and Reintegration / 61
Intelligence / 61
Economic Policies / 62
Improve the Operations of the Electric Power Ministry / 63
Improve Iraqi Welfare Programs / 64
End the Use of U.S. Grant Aid for Infrastructure Projects / 65

Chapter Seven
Next Steps If Violence Fails to Decline / 67
When Is It Time to Go Home? / 67
How Should We Leave? / 68
What Could be the Repercussions of 'Withdrawal? / 69
What Could the United States Do to Mitigate the Repercussions of Withdrawal? / 70
Withdraw Without Haste / 71
Reassure Friends and Allies / 71
Work with the United Nations ro Pass a Resolution Recognizing the Territorial Integrity of Iraq / 72
Help Refugees / 72
Do Not Get Excited About Oil / 73
Maintain Appropriate Relations with the Successor Regime / 73

References / 75

PREFACE

In light of the continuing violence in Iraq, U.S. policymakers continue to reexamine policy options and their repercussions. This monograph assesses a number of approaches that the U.S. government can consider in its efforts to reduce sectarian violence and stabilize Iraq and presents recommendations that may help increase the likelihood of success. It also considers possible next steps to take, whether these efforts succeed or fail.

The monograph should be of interest to policy make ¡s and analysts involved in international security and U.S. foreign policy particularly U.S. policy toward Iraq. The analysis in this monograph is based on more than e. year of research, which included travel to the region and extensive interviews with U.S., Iraqi, and other specialists, analysts, and officials, as one component of the project "The U.S. Air Force Role in the Middle East." It involved a multidisciplinary team of researchers who brought their expertise in political, economic, and military strategic analysis to these important questions. Readers of this monograph may also find the following Rand publications to be of interest:

- America's Role in Nation-Building: From Germany to lraq, by James Dobbins, John G. McGinn, Keith Crane, Seth G. Jones, Rollie Lal, Andrew Rachel, Rachel M. Swanger and Anga Timilsina (MR-1753-RC, 2003)

Developing lraq's Security Sector: The Coalition Provisional Authority's Experience, by Andrew Rathmell, Olga Oliker, Terrence K. Kell¡ David Brannan, and Keith Crane (MG-365-OSD, 2005)

- The UN's Role in Nation-Building From the Congo to lrøq, by James Dobbins, Seth G. Jones, Keith Crane, Andrew Rathmell, Brett Steele, Richard Teltschik, and Anga Timilsina (MG-304-RC, 2005)

Insargenqt and Counterinsargenc! in lraq, by Bruce Hoffman (OPI27-TPC|CMEPP, 2oo4).

The research was sponsored by the Directorate for Operational Plans and Joint Matters, headquarters, U.S. Air Force (formerly AF / XOX, now A5X) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of Rand Project Air Force. The research for this report was completed in February 2007.

Rand Project Air Force

Rand Project Air Force (Paf), a division of the Rand Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force's federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. Paf provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces.
Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about Paf is available on our Web site:
http://www.rand.org/paf/

Olga Oliker,
Keith Crane,
Audra K. Grant,
Terrence K. Kelly,
Andrew Rathmell,
David Brannan

U.S. Policy Options for lraq
A Reossessment

Rand Corporation

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U.S. Policy Options for lraq a Reossessment
Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Audra K. Grant,
Terrence K. Kelly, Andrew Rathmell, David Brannan

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
U.S. policy options for Iraq : a reassessment / Olga Oliker ... [et al.].
P.cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4168-5 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Iraq War, 2003-2. United States-Politics and government-2001-
3. Iraq-Politics and government-2003- 4. Internal security-Iraq. 5. Iraq-
Economic conditions-21st century. I. Oliker, Olga. II. Rand Corporation.
III. Title: lJnited Stares policy options for lraq.

DS79.76.U282007
956.7044'31-dc22
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Corer photo: Baghdad, Iraq (Afpn) -- A member (bottom right) of the Combined
Weapons
Effectiveness Assessment Team dssesses the impact point of a precision-guided
5,000-pound bomb through the dome of one of Saddam Hussein's key regime buildings
here. The impact point is one of up to 500 the team will assess in coming weeks-
(U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Carla Kippes)

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