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Iraq: Sanctions and Beyond


Éditeur : Westview Press Date & Lieu : 1997, Oxford
Préface : Pages : 394
Traduction : ISBN : 0-8133-3235-4
Langue : AnglaisFormat : 140x225 mm
Code FIKP : Liv. Eng. Cor. Ira. N° 3148Thème : Politique

Iraq: Sanctions and Beyond

Iraq: Sanctions and Beyond

Anthony H. Cordesman
Ahmed S. Hashim

WestviewPress


With this multivolume study, Anthony H. Cordesman once again proves that he is a leading authority on the affairs of the Middle Eastern states. Cordesman led this comprehensive net assessment of the political, economic, energy, security (both internal and external), and military trends in each of the Gulf states, as well as the power projection capabilities of the U.S. forces in the Gulf.

Each volume provides a wealth of information, including an analysis of the key historical trends affecting security issues in the country under scrutiny; tensions involved in its external relations; the character of potential threats; developments in its politics and internal security; trends in its economy and government budgets; trends in military spending and arms purchases; trends in oil and gas export capability and economic diversification; trends in demographic, ethnic, and sectarian conflicts; trends in the shape of its military forces; and the changing strategic role of the United States in Gulf affairs. Avoiding the pitfalls of other works on this region, this six-volume account incorporates a wide range of concerns to paint a detailed and multifaceted picture of each state in the volatile Gulf region.

Emphasis is placed on hard data and substantive analysis. Detailed tables and charts are provided for each critical area, along with an overview of national data, data provided by international organizations such as the World Bank and International Energy Agency, unclassified U.S. government data, and the results of original research done by CSIS.
This volume provides analysis of the state of Iraq’s security and of current Western policy toward the country in the wake of the Gulf War. It also examines the political, economic, and security impact of sanctions, Iraq’s future role as an oil exporter, the U.S. policy of “dual containment” in relation to Iraq, and options for dealing with Iraq in the future.


Anthony H. Cordesman has served in senior positions in the office for the secretary of defense, NATO, and the U.S. Senate. He is currently a senior fellow and Co-Director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an adjunct professor of national security studies at Georgetown University, and a special consultant on military affairs for ABC News. He lives in Washington,
D.C. Ahmed S. Hashim is a fellow in Political-Military Affairs and the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., where he specializes in strategic issues. Previously, he was a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. He lives in Virginia.


Contents

List of Tables and Illustrations / ix
Acknowledgments / xiii

1 Introduction / 1
The Policy Options for Dealing with Iraq, 1
Key Policy Complications in Dealing with Iraq, 3
A Lack of Present and Future Consensus, 5
Policy and the Role of Analysis, 6

2 Internal Political Developments Since the Gulf War / 8
Internal Political Developments Since the Gulf War, 8
The Informal and Formal Basis of Iraq's Power Structure, 10

3 The Informal Politics of the "Center" / 12
Sunni Popular Opinion and the "Center" Immediately After the Gulf War, 12
Sunni Popular Opinion and the "Center" Since the Gulf War, 13
Growing Alienation and the Death of "Reform," 16
Problems with the Key Clans, 19
Problems in Saddam's Family and Coterie, 21
Current Trends in Iraq's Informal Power Structure. 31
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 33

4 The Formal Politics of Iraq's Instruments of State Power / 36
The Revolutionary Command Council, 36
The Ba'ath Party, 37
The Cabinet and Government Leadership, 40
Financial Resources, 42 The Security Structure, 44
The Iraqi Armed Forces, 49
The "Old Boy" Network and the Interaction Between Informal and Formal Instruments of Power, 57
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 58

5 The "Periphery": Opposition Movements and Ethnic and Sectarian Issues / 59
An "Artificial" State, 59
The Politics of Conspiracy and Violence, 60
Opposition Parties, 63
Iraq's Crisis with the Kurds, 70
The Role of the Kurds in a "Centrist" or "Peripheral" Strategy, 95
Iraq's Crisis with Its Shi'ites, 97
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 109

6 The "Periphery": Political Alienation and Abuses of Human Rights / 111
Killings and Torture, 111
Prisons and the Legal System, 118
Freedom of Speech and Political Dissent, 120
Treatment of Minorities and Foreigners, 121
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 122

7 Sanctions and Economic Instability / 124
The Iraqi Economy Before the Gulf War, 127
The Iraqi Economy After the Gulf War, 136
UN Sanctions and the Policies of the Iraqi Government, 137
The Iraqi Government's Refusal of Relief from UN Sanctions, 147
Accepting UN Security Council Resolution 986,150
The Future Political Impact of Sanctions, 153
Debt and Reparations After the Gulf War, 156
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 158

8 Oil and Iraqi Export Capabilities / 161
Iraq's Strategic Oil and Gas Potential, 161
Iraqi Oil Production Before the Gulf War, 163
Oil Production Efforts Since the Gulf War, 170
Iraqi Refining and Petrochemical Capability, 173
Production and Development Prospects Once Sanctions Are Lifted or Relaxed, 174
Natural Gas, 176
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 177

9 External Relations / 182
Iraq's Foreign Policy Since the Gulf War, 182
The Continuing Threat to Kuwait, 184
Relations with Iran, 189
Iraqi Support of the People's Mujahideen, 193
Relations with Syria, Jordan, and Turkey, 193
Iraq, Egypt, and Other Arab States, 200
Iraq and the Gulf States, 201
Iraq and the International Community, 204
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 209

10 Military Developments / 211
Iraqi Military Expenditures, 218
Iraqi Arms Imports, 224
Iraqi Efforts to Smuggle Arms and Parts and Rebuild Its Iraqi Military Industries Since the Gulf War, 226
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 232

11 The Threat from Iraqi Land Forces / 233
The Impact of the Gulf War on die Iraqi Army, 233
The Iraqi Army in 1996, 236
The Republican Guards, 237
Deployments Against the Kurds, 238
Deployments Against the Shi'ites, 239
Land Force Equipment Holdings, 240
Land Force Readiness and Warfighting Effectiveness, 258
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 262

12 The Threat from Iraqi Air and Air Defense Forces / 263
The Cost of the Gulf War to the Iraqi Air Force, 263
Current Air Force Equipment Holdings, 265
Air Readiness and Warfighting Capabilities, 271
Land-Based Air Defenses, 274
Land-Based Air Defense Readiness and Warfighting Capability, 277
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 280

13 The Threat from Iraqi Naval Forces / 281
Surviving Combat Ships, 281
Naval Readiness and Warfighting Capability, 285
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 285

14 Unconventional Warfare and Terrorism / 286
Recent Iraqi Terrorist Activity, 286
Attempting to Assassinate President Bush, 287
Other Recent Iraqi Acts of Terrorism, 288
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 289

15 The Threat from Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction / 290
The Struggle to Eliminate Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction, 290
Iraq's Future Missile Capabilities, 306
Iraq's Future Chemical Weapons Capabilities, 314
Iraq's Future Biological Weapons Capabilities, 318
Iraq's Future Nuclear Capability, 333
Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy, 335

16 The Problem of Policy: Beyond Sanctions and "Dual Containment" / 344
The Case for Continuing Military Containment, 345
Prospects for Political Change, 350
Iran and Iraq: The Risk of a "Devil's Bargain," 356
The Problem of Sanctions, 357

Sources and Methods / 360

Notes / 363

About the Book and Authors / 394


INTRODUCTION

Iraq's current regime presents unambiguous security threats to the other states of the Gulf and to the West. While Iran's regime may offer some hope for constructive engagement, Iraq is virtually certain to be a revanchist and aggressive state as long as Saddam Hussein is in power. Even if Saddam and his coterie should fall from power, their immediate successor will most likely consist of another Sunni authoritarian elite, made up of other members of the Ba'ath party, senior military officers, or a combination of both.

It may well be a decade before any political transformation occurs in Iraq that produces a stable, moderate government. In the interim, Iraq may go through several short-lived regimes and even civil war. Its politics are likely to remain the politics of violence, many of its future leaders are likely to seek revenge for the Gulf War and its after-math, and its political elites are likely to reassert Iraq's search for hegemony in the Gulf and seek to become the leading regional military power.

This does not mean that Iraq cannot change, and should not be encouraged to change. It does not mean that sanctions and isolation are the only way of dealing with Iraq, or that Iraq's people should be punished indefinitely for the actions of its leaders. It does mean, however, that the Gulf and the West must be realistic in shaping their policy towards Iraq, and must have a realistic understanding of its current regime and military potential.

The Policy Options for Dealing with Iraq

The West and the other states in the Gulf must find ways to live with Iraq, seek to moderate the conduct of its regime, and create a climate for positive political change. The basic issue for policy is how this can best be done. There are several major policy options that the West, other
Gulf states, and other nations can pursue:

- Lifting political and economic sanctions under conditions that leave Saddam Hussein and the Ba'ath elite in power, and which effectively recognize that Iraq will not fully comply with the terms of the UN cease-fire.

- Continuing the present UN sanctions that isolate Iraq politically and cripple its economy, in order to force Saddam Hussein from power and to create a successor regime that will be less aggressive and willing to trade changes in the regime's behavior for a lifting of sanctions;

- Lifting all or most political and economic sanctions in return for a large degree of Iraqi compliance with the terms of the UN cease-fire, requiring full Iraqi compliance in providing reparations and the recognition by Iraq of its new borders with a sovereign Kuwait, but leaving Saddam Hussein and the present regime in power;

- A step-by-step lifting of political and economic sanctions under conditions which trade specific changes in the conduct of Iraq's regime for each step in reducing the present sanctions, while leaving Saddam Hussein and the present Ba'ath and military elite in power;

- Seeking to create an alternative "centrist" regime that is still based on the Ba'ath, Sunni elites, and/or the military, but drives Saddam Hussein and his coterie from power by maintaining a mix of sanctions, using other economic and political pressures, using covert action, and persuading neighboring states like Turkey and Jordan to support such a "peripheral strategy";

- Adopting a "peripheral" strategy that combines sanctions with covert action, which attempts to mobilize the Kurds and Shi'ites against the central regime, and which seeks to persuade neighboring states like Turkey and Jordan to support such a "peripheral strategy" and;
- Pursuing an individual national policy towards Iraq that seeks to maximize political and/or trade benefits in dealing with Iraq, regardless of the character of its regime and its conduct towards other states.

The UN is still committed to a policy of sanctions, but it is clear that there no longer is such a degree of international unity in pursuing this policy.
- Some states—such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Britain and the US—continue to favor a hard-line approach because they believe it is impossible to deal with Saddam Hussein's regime. Even Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, however, did not fully support the US during the Kurdish crisis of August-September, 1996.

- Other states, including major outside powers like France and Russia, believe that sanctions now harm Iraq's people without offering any …


Anthony H. Cordesman

Ahmed S. Hashim

Iraq: Sanctions and Beyond

WestviewPress


WestviewPress
CSIS Middle East Dynamic Net Assessment
Iraq: Sanctions and Beyond
Anthony H. Cordesman
Ahmed S. Hashim

WestviewPress
A Division of HarperCollinsPublishers

All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.

Copyright © 1997 by Anthony H. Cordesman

Published in 1997 in the United States of America by Westview Press, 5500 Central Avenue, Boulder, Colorado 80301-2877, and in the United Kingdom by Westview Press, 12 Hid's Copse Road, Cumnor Hill, Oxford 0X2 9JJ

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Cordesman, Anthony H.
Iraq : sanctions and beyond / Anthony H. Cordesman and Ahmed S. Hashim.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references (p. ).
ISBN 0-8133-3235-4 (he). — ISBN 0-8133-3236-2 (pbk.)
1. Iraq—Politics and government—1979- 2. Iraq—Foreign
relations—1979- I. Hashim, Ahmed S. II. Title.
DS79.7.C67 1997
956.704'3—dc20 / 96-46046
CIP

This book was typeset by Letra Libre, 1705 Fourteenth Street, Suite 391, Boulder, Colorado 80304.

The paper used in this publication meets the requirements of the American Natiortal Standard for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials Z39.48-1984.
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