Contents
Figures / xvii
Acknowledgments / xxi
Chapter 1: introduction: the new balancing act in the gulf / 1
Key factors changing gulf security dynamics / 2
The enduring dynamics of gulf (in) security / 4
A Southern gulf divided against itself / 4
The self-destructive north / 5
The destabilizing outside stabilizers / 8
A future of discord and dependence? / 10
A hollow gulf cooperation council and de facto reliance on the ‘‘Fifth Corner’’ / 11
Islamic extremism, terrorism, and insurgency / 11
The Iranian problem / 12
Iraq as a Power Vacuum / 12
Yemen at the Margins / 12
Squaring the Fifth Corner? / 13
Security developments in the southern gulf / 13
Going Hollow at Great Cost / 14
The Key Factors Shaping Southern Gulf Forces / 14
Key Issues in Force Development / 18
Military developments in the northern gulf / 23
‘‘Snapshots’’ of comparative force strength / 24
Broad Trends Affecting the Balance / 24
Trends Affecting Military Manpower / 25
Trends Affecting Land Forces / 26
Trends Affecting Air and Air Defense Forces / 29
Trends Affecting Naval Forces / 31
Adapting to the changing nature of military power / 32
Force Quality over Force Quantity: The Revolution in Military Affairs / 34
The Vulnerabilities of Less Advanced Powers / 48
The Threat of Asymmetric Warfare and Nonstate Actors / 56
The Vulnerability of Conventional Military Power / 61
Nonstate Actors as a Transnational Threat / 63
Chapter 2: Bahrain / 65
Military spending and arms imports / 68
Military manpower / 68
The Bahraini army / 71
Armor and Antiarmor Weapons / 71
Artillery / 72
Antiaircraft Weapons / 72
Overall Assessment / 73
The Bahraini Air Force / 73
Combat Air Strength / 73
Other Helicopters and Transport Aircraft / 75
Overall Assessment / 75
The Bahraini Navy / 75
Surface Combat Forces / 76
Overall Assessment / 77
Paramilitary, Security, And Intelligence Forces / 77
Main Security and Paramilitary Forces / 78
Overall Assessment / 80
Bahrain’s Continuing Strategic Challenges / 80
Socioeconomic Challenges / 80
Relations with Neighboring States / 81
Political Unrest / 83
Bahrain’s Struggle against Terrorism / 83
Ongoing Internal Stability / 84
Balancing Internal Security and Conventional Military Needs / 86
Chapter 3: Kuwait / 87
Military Spending and Arms Imports / 89
Military Manpower / 91
The Kuwaiti Army / 92
Force Structure / 92
Armor and Antiarmor Weapons / 94
Artillery / 95
Overall Assessment / 96
The Kuwaiti Air Force / 96
Combat Air Strength / 98
Helicopters and Transport Aircraft / 98
Overall Assessment / 98
The Kuwaiti Air Defense / 99
Major Air Defense Missiles / 99
Other Air Defense Systems / 100
Overall Assessment / 100
The Kuwaiti Navy / 100
Surface Combat Forces / 101
Amphibious and Support Boats / 102
Coast Guard / 102
Overall Assessment / 103
Paramilitary, Security, And Intelligence Forces / 103
Main Security and Paramilitary Forces / 103
Kuwait’s Struggle against Terrorism / 106
Kuwait’s Continuing Strategic Challenges / 110
Political Challenges / 111
Socioeconomic Challenges / 113
Relations with Neighboring States / 116
Chapter 4: Oman / 119
Oman’s Emergence as a Strategic Player in the Gulf / 121
Internal Politics and Stability / 122
Economic Reform, Diversification, and Stability / 123
Military Spending and Arms Imports / 124
Military Manpower / 125
The Omani Army / 126
Force Organization / 126
Armor and Antiarmor Weapons / 126
Artillery / 129
Antiaircraft Weapons / 129
Overall Assessment / 129
Omani Air Force / 130
Combat Air Strength / 130
Helicopters and Transport Aircraft / 130
Overall Assessment / 130
The Omani Navy / 132
Surface Combat Forces / 132
Amphibious Forces / 132
Overall Assessment / 133
Oman Royal Guards Forces / 134
Omani Paramilitary, Security, and Intelligence Services / 134
Trends in Force Structure / 136
Main Security and Paramilitary Forces / 136
Oman’s Struggle against Terrorism / 138
Political Uncertainty / 139
Oman’s Continuing Strategic Challenges / 139
Economic Challenges and Diversification / 139
Oil and Stability / 140
The ‘‘Demographic Time Bomb’’ / 141
Relations with Neighboring States / 141
Ongoing Internal Stability / 142
Balancing Internal Security and Conventional Military Needs / 143
Chapter 5: Qatar / 145
Military Spending and Arms Imports / 146
Military Manpower / 147
The Qatari Army / 148
The Qatari Air Force / 150
Qatar Air Defense / 152
The Qatari Navy / 152
Paramilitary, Security, And Intelligence Services / 154
Continuing Strategic Challenges / 154
Qatar, the GCC, and the Broader Middle East / 155
Qatar, Iran, and the North Field / 155
Qatar’s Uncertain Domestic Environment / 156
Qatar and Terrorism / 157
The Youth Explosion and the Radicalization of Qatar’s Youth / 159
Chapter 6: Saudi Arabia / 163
Saudi Strategic Dynamics / 165
The Saudi National Security Apparatus / 168
The Search for Jointness / 168
Slow Improvement in Jointness in the Regular Services / 169
Establishing Broader Jointness for Counterterrorism / 170
The Importance of Consensus and Consultation / 171
The Role of the Saudi National Security Council / 173
Saudi Military and Security Spending / 173
Finding the Proper Level of Expenditure / 174
Saudi Arms Imports / 176
The Impact of the Gulf War / 178
Arms Imports since the Late 1990s / 179
Manpower / 181
The Saudi Army / 181
Force Strength and Structure / 184
Saudi Armored Forces / 185Saudi Antitank Weapons / 187
Saudi Artillery / 188
Saudi Light and Medium Air Defense Weapons / 188
Saudi Army Aviation / 189
Facilities and Infrastructure / 191
Overall Capabilities / 193
The Saudi National Guard / 194
Strength and Organization / 195
Major Combat Equipment / 197
Modernization and New Mission Requirements / 197
Overall Capabilities / 198
The Saudi Navy / 199
Strength and Organization / 199
Main Surface Combatants / 199
Smaller Combat Ships, Mine Warfare, and Support Forces / 202
Submarines? / 203
Marine and Amphibious Forces / 203
Naval Aviation / 203
Saudi Border Guard / 204
Roles, Missions, and Capability / 205
The Saudi Air Force 206
Strength and Structure / 207
Combat Aircraft / 207
Possible Upgrades to RSAF Combat Aircraft / 211
Upgrading the RSAF Tornados? / 212
Purchasing the Rafael? / 213
The Eurofighter Typhoon / 213
Reconnaissance and Early Warning / 214
Training Aircraft / 215
Refueling, Transport, and Support / 215
Munitions and Spares / 216
Support, Training, Logistics, and Sustainment / 216
Overall Capabilities / 216
Saudi Land-Based Air Defenses / 217
The Saudi Air Defense Force / 218
The Patriot and the I-Hawk / 219
Other Land-Based Air Defenses / 220
Overall Capabilities / 220
Saudi Missile Forces and the Possibility Of Saudi WMD / 221
Modernizing the CSS-2 / 222
What Comes Next? / 225
NBC Defense Capabilities / 227
Saudi Paramilitary, Security, and Intelligence Services / 227
Saudi Arabia’s Main Internal Security Forces / 228
The Pivotal Role of the Ministry of Interior / 228
The Police and Security Services / 230
General Security Service / 233
The General Intelligence Presidency / 233
The Changing Role of the GIP / 234
Changes in the GIP Leadership / 235
The Future Role and Capabilities of the GIP / 235
Border and Coastal Security / 236
The Role of the Border Guard / 236
The Option of a Border Surveillance and Defense System / 238
Saudi Border Guard Development Program / 238
The Expanding Mission of the Border Guard / 239
Security and the Role of the Judicial System / 240
The Judicial System and Internal Security / 240
The ‘‘Mutawwa’in’’ or Religious Police / 241
An Effective Internal Security Force ? / 242
Saudi Arabia’s continuing strategic challenges / 243
Terrorism and Counterterrorism / 247
Saudi Internal Security before 9-11 / 248
Saudi Response to 9-11 / 249
The Impact of May 2003 / 251
Saudi Counterterrorism Efforts since May 2003 / 251
Al Qa’ida in Saudi Arabia / 253
Saudi Petroleum Security Apparatus / 254
Asymmetric Threat to Energy Security / 255
Assessing the Saudi Security Forces’ Performance at Abqaiq / 256
The Uncertain Future of Iraq / 259
Iraq as a Conventional Military Threat to its Neighbors ? / 260
The Creation of a ‘‘Shi’ite Block’’ in the Gulf? / 261
Saudi Views on Iran’s Role in Iraq’s Internal Affairs / 263
Regional Insurgency: The Potential Spillover Effect / 265
The Threat from Foreign Fighters / 265
The Threat of a Fragmented Iraq ? / 267
The Threat from Iran / 269
Key Iranian Threat / 270
Saudi Reaction to Iran’s Nuclear Program / 271
Collective Security and Relations with the GCC / 272
Counterterrorism Cooperation / 273
Military Cooperation / 275
Socioeconomic Challenges / 275
Economic Reforms / 276
Addressing the Demographic Pressures and Unemployment / 278
Prospects for Saudi Stability / 281
Chapter 7: united Arab Emirates / 283
Command structure of armed forces / 285
Military spending / 285
Military manpower / 287
The UAE army / 287
Force Structure / 290
Armor / 290
Anti armor / 291
Artillery / 291
Air Defense Holdings / 292
Other Recent Developments and Acquisitions / 293
Overall Assessment / 293
The UAE air force / 294
Fixed-Wing Air Strength / 294
Helicopters / 294
Uncertain Strength and Capabilities / 297
Recent Developments and Acquisitions / 298
Summary Assessment / 299
UAE land-based air defense / 300
The Pantsir-SIE / 301
Ballistic and Cruise Missile Defense / 301
The Facade of Integration / 301
Summary Assessment / 302
The UAE navy / 302
Ship Strength / 302
Naval Aviation / 304
Naval Modernization / 304
Summary Assessment / 306
Paramilitary, Security, And Intelligence Services / 306
The United Arab Emirates’ Continuing Strategic Challenges / 309
Political Uncertainty / 309
Iran and the United Arab Emirates / 310
The GCC and the United Arab Emirates / 311
Territorial Dispute with Saudi Arabia / 312
Economic Challenges / 313
Demographic Challenges / 314
Chapter 8: Iran / 317
Iran’s Changing Role in Regional Security / 317
Military Spending and Arms Imports / 320
Military Manpower / 322
The Iranian Army / 322
Iranian Tank Strength / 323
Other Iranian Armor / 329
Iranian Anti armor Weapons / 330
Iranian Artillery Strength / 331
Iranian Army Air Defense Systems / 334
Iranian Army Aviation / 335
Iranian Army’s Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence (C4I) / 335
Other Aspects of Iranian Army Capability / 335
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (Pasdaran) / 336
IRGC Land Forces / 336
The IRGC Air Force / 337
The IRGC Naval Forces / 337
Proxy and Covert CBRN Operations / 338
The Quds (Qods) Forces / 338
Role in Iran’s Industries / 339
The Basij and Other Paramilitary Forces / 340
The Iranian Air Force / 340
Iranian Air Strength / 343
Iranian Aircraft Development / 344
Iranian Air Force Readiness and Effectiveness / 345
Iranian Land-Based Air Defense / 347
The Iranian Navy / 350
Iranian Antiship Missiles and Missile Craft / 352
Iranian Mine Warfare Capabilities / 355
Iranian Amphibious Assets / 356
Iranian Naval Air / 356
Iran’s Submarine Forces / 357
The Role of the Naval Branch of the IRGC / 359
Naval Force Deployments / 359
Overall Naval Capabilities / 360
Iran’s Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Program / 360
Chemical Weapons / 361
Official Estimates of Iranian Capability / 361
Arms Control Estimates of Iranian Capability / 363
NGO Estimates of Iranian Capability / 363
Biological Weapons / 364
Possible Early Indicators That Iran Might Have a BW Program / 365
The Uncertain Nature of Iran’s BW Program Since the Mid-1990s / 366
Continuing Alarms and Excursions / 366
The Possible Role of Outside Suppliers / 367
Possible CBW War-Fighting Capability / 368
Possible Nuclear Weapons Programs / 371
Problems in Analyzing Iran’s WMD Program: A Case Study / 372
Uncertainty and Credibility of Sources / 374
Key Uncertainties in Iran’s Nuclear Developments / 376
Plutonium Production / 376
Uranium Enrichment / 377
A Continuing Process of Discovery / 385
Iran’s Long-Range Missile Arsenal / 387
Shahab-1/SCUD-B / 389
Shahab-2/SCUD-C / 391
CCS-8 or Tondar 69 / 393
Shahab-3 / 393
Missile Development / 393
Uncertain Performance / 395
Mobility and Deployment / 398
Shahab-3A/3M/3D/IRIS / 398
Shahab-4 / 399
Shahab-5 and Shahab-6 / 400
Ghadr 101 and Ghadr 110 / 401
Raduga KH-55 Granat/Kh-55/AS-15 Kent / 402
Paramilitary, Internal Security, And Intelligence Forces / 403
The Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) / 404
The IRGC Intelligence Branch / 405
The Basij Resistance Force / 405
The Uncertain Role of the Ministry of Interior / 406
Iran’s Continuing Strategic Challenges / 406
Iran’s Nuclear Program and Its Strategic Consequences / 410
Economic Sanctions / 410
Military Strikes / 413
Iranian Defense against U.S. Strikes / 414
Iranian Retaliation against U.S. Strikes / 416
The Strategic Implications of a Military Strike against Iran / 419
The Future of Iraq / 419
Other Challenges / 423
Chapter 9: Iraq / 425
A Pattern of External and Internal Violence / 425
Iraq’s Strategic Importance / 428
Iraqi Military Development / 430
Military Spending and Arms Imports / 434
Iraqi Military Manpower / 438
The Iraqi Army / 440
Equipment Holdings and Issues / 443
Support Forces / 445
The Iraqi Air Force / 446
The Iraqi Navy / 448
Paramilitary, Security, Police, And Intelligence Forces / 450
The Ministry of Interior as a ‘‘Threat’’ / 451
Real vs. Authorized Strength / 453
The Status of Special Security Forces / 454
Force Size and Readiness / 455
Steps toward Reform / 456
The Regular Police / 457
Increases in Police Strength /458
The ‘‘Year of the Police’’ / 458
Ongoing Reform / 459
Equipment and Training / 460
Dealing with Divided Loyalties / 461
Facility Construction / 461
Department of Border Enforcement / 462
Coalition Border Transition Teams / 462
Border Forces Equipment and Training / 463
Uncertain Progress in Facilities / 463
Other Developments in Border Enforcement / 464
Facilities Protection Forces, Private Security Personnel, and ‘‘Ministry Armies’’ / 464
The Facilities Protection Services / 464
The Infrastructure Protection Forces and Other Non-MOD/MOI Paramilitary Elements / 465
Intelligence / 467
Iraq’s Continuing Strategic Challenges / 467
The Growing Level of Violence in Iraq / 467
The Dangers of Strategic Uncertainty / 469
Socioeconomic Challenges / 472
An Aging Energy Sector / 476
Political Conciliation vs. Civil War / 479
Insurgent Attacks Push Iraq toward More Intense Civil War / 482
The Future of the Insurgency and the Prospect of Large-Scale Civil War / 484
The ‘‘Nationalist’’ Need for Compromise / 484
The ‘‘Islamist’’ Need for Civil War / 485
The Threat from Shi’ite Death Squads and Militias / 486
Links to the Iraqi Police and Special Security Forces / 487
Questionable Loyalties / 489
The Kurdish Question / 492
Kurdish Parties and the Kurdish Militias / 493
Tensions between the Kurds and Other Iraqis / 493
Uncertain Kurdish Unity / 496
The Problem of Resources and Oil / 497
The Turkish Question / 498
Relationship with Neighboring States / 498
Creating a ‘‘Shi’ite Crescent’’? / 498
The Arab Gulf States / 499
Jordan / 499
Turkey / 501
Iran / 502
Syria / 508
Chapter 10: Yemen / 513
Military Spending and Arms Imports / 515
Military Manpower / 517
The Yemeni Army / 518
Armor and Antiarmor Weapons / 518
Artillery / 522
Antiaircraft Weapons / 522
Ballistic Missiles and Rockets / 523
Overall Assessment / 523
The Yemeni Air Force / 523
Combat Air Strength / 525
Helicopters and Transport Aircraft / 525
Overall Assessment / 526
Yemeni Air Defense Forces / 526
The Yemeni Navy / 526
Surface Combat Forces / 526
Amphibious Forces / 529
Overall Assessment / 529
Paramilitary, Security, and Intelligence Forces / 530
Main Security and Paramilitary Forces / 530
Yemen’s Struggle against Terrorism / 531
Pattern of Attacks / 534
Political Unrest / 536
Yemen’s Continuing Strategic Challenges / 537
Socioeconomic Challenges / 537
The Bab al-Mandeb / 539
Relations with Neighboring States / 539
Ongoing Internal Instability / 540
Balancing Internal Security and Conventional Military Needs / 543
Chapter 11: Conclusion: The New Balancing Act in the Gulf / 545
The Need for More Effective Security Structures / 546
Meeting the Islamist Extremist Challenge / 548
Taking Responsibility vs. Continuing Exercises in Futility / 548
Notes / 551
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