War in the Persian Gulf: the U.S. Takes Sides

Contents

Letter of Transmittal / v
Executive Summary / vii

I. Overvi.ew: The Stakes in the Gulf / 1
A. Significance of the Gulf as Reservoir and Passageway / 1
B. Comparative Significance for Western Oil Importers / 2
C. Signific.ance of the Iran•lraq War / 2
D. Sign.ificance of the Tanker War / 3
E. Likelihood and Effect of an Iranian Move to Close the Gulf / 4
F. Potential for U.S. Accommodation with Iran / 5

II. The Iran-Iraq War / 7
A. Historical Background / 7
B. Iraq's Military Situatiou / 9
1. General Observations / 9
2. The Southern Front: Decisive Battlefield / 10
3. The North: War and Insurrection / 15
4. The Central Sector: New Vulnerability / 17
5. The Home Front: Iraq Behind the Lines / 18
6. The Ba'ath Regime: Survival Through Repression / 19
C. American Policy / 21
1. General Observations / 21
2. President Reagan's "Strategic Initiative" to Iran / 22
3. The Worst CaSe Scenario / 23
4. The United Nations Option / 24

III. The Geopolitics of the Gulf States / 25
A. A World of Vulnerability / 25
B. The Internal Shi'a Threat / 26
C. Regional Views of the Iran-Iraq War / 27
D. The Gulf Cooperation Council / 28
E. Attitudes Toward the United States / 29
F. Attitudes Toward the Soviets / 31
G. Military Status of the Gulf States / 31
H. Pressure for Arms Sales / 34

IV. The U.S. Role in the Gulf / 36
A. The Traditional U.S. Military Presence / 36
B. Reflagging / 36
C. The Iranian Threat / 39
D. The Expansion of U.S. and Other Forces / 41
E. American Policy: Shifting Rationales / 42

V. Appendix / 44
A. The Attack on U.S.S. Stark / 44
B. Chronology of Major Events / 44
C. United Nations Security Council Resolution 598 / 47

Table l.-Ship Attacks in the Persian Gulf. 1981-87 / 48
Table 2.-Dependency on Persian Gulf Oil, 1986 / 48
Table 3.-Disposition of Persian Gulf Oil, 1986 / 49