Contents
Tables / xi Acknowledgments xiii Introduction / xv
1. The Evolution of Iraq’s Oil Industry / 1 Oil Concessions in Iraq and the Agreement of1952 / 2 The Growth of Output and Revenue / 2 Oil Output / 3 The Pricing of Iraq Crude Oil to 1950 / 4 Price Developments, 1950-1960 / 6 Nationalization and Oil Price Developments in the OPEC Era / 8 The 1973 Oil Price Revolution / 10 The Emergence of Iraq's National Oil Industry / 12 Notes / 13
2. Oil and Development under the Monarchy, 1950-1958 / 17 The Development Board and Its Programs, 1950-1958 / 17 Planned versus Actual Development Spending, 1951/52-1957/58 / 19 Highlights of Allocations for Development, 1950-1958 / 21 The Development Board and the Agricultural Sector / 24 The Development Board and the Industrial Sector / 29 Notes / 33
3. Oil and Development Planning, 1958-1968 / 35 Development Planning in the Qasim Era, 1958-1963 / 36 Development Planning under the Are f Brothers / 43 The Economy’s Past Performance as a Guide for the Plan / 45 Sectoral Expenditure under the FYP / 46 Actual Performance of the FYP / 49 Notes / 52
4. The Baath Party and Its National Development Plans / 55 Evolution of Arab Nationalism / 55 The Political Economy of Arab Nationalism 58 The National Development Plan, 1970/71-1974/75 / 62 The Strategy of the Plan / 62 Quantitative Goals of the Plan / 63 Assessment of the National Development Plan / 68 The 1975 Investment Program / 71 Development Planning after 1975 / 72 Notes / 75
5. The Iran-Iraq War and the Demise of Development / 79 The War and the Iraqi Economy / 79 The War, Iraq’s Oil, and Saudi Arabia's Oil Policy / 83 The War and the Deterioration of the Iraqi Economy / 87 The War and the End of Development / 89 War Labor Mobilization and the Economy / 91 Military Expenditures and Iraq's GNP and Oil Revenue / 94 The War and Military and Nonmilitary Imports / 95 Privatization under War Conditions / 96 An Estimate of the Cost of the Destruction / 99 Notes / 103
6. The Invasion of Kuwait and the Destruction of Development / 105 Abundance of Problems versus Scarcity of Resources / 105 Government Borrowing, Money Supply, and Inflation / 106 The Emerging Problem of External Debt / 109 Military Industries and the Use of Scarce Resources / 109 OPEC Failure and the Iraq-Kuwait Oil Confrontation / 111 The Invasion and the Economic Sanctions / 118 An Estimate of Iraq's Human Losses / 120 An Estimate of Iraq's Economic Losses / 121 Impact on Personal Income, Consumption, and Cost of Living / 123 Notes / 124
7. Iraq’s Economic Development, 1950-1990: An Assessment / 127 Evolution of the New State / 127 Regional and International Context 130 Ideological Dimensions / 133 An Assessment of Iraq's Development, 1950-1990 / 136 Development Problems, 1958-1980 / 139 Development Problems, 1980-1993 / 145 Notes / 147
8. What Economic Future for Iraq? / 151 Sanctions, Reparations, Debt, and Reconstruction / 151 The $586-Billion Question / 153 An Estimate of Oil Revenue to 2010 / 153 The Burden of Foreign Deb t / 157 The Burden of War Reparations / 158 United Nations Sanctions / 158 Other Claims on Scarce Resources / 159 The Continued Crisis of the Economy / 160 The Problem of Hyperinflation and the Exchange Rate / 164 What Economic Future for Iraq? / 167 Notes / 168
Selected Bibliography / 171 Index / 183
Tables
1.1 Oil Revenue, Oil Output, Gross Domestic Product, and Population, 1950-1990 / 11
2.1 General Programs of Development Board’s Projects / 18 2.2 Total Planned and Actual Development Expenditures and Revenues, 1951/52-1957/58 / 20
3.1 Provisional and Detailed Economic Plans / 38 3.2 Planned and Actual Development Expenditures, 1958/59-1962/63 / 40 3.3 Allocated, Budgeted, and Actual Expenditure and Revenue: Five-Year Plan, 1965/66-1969/70 / 47 3.4 Projected and Actual Growth Rates under the Five-Year Economic Plan, 1965-1969 / 50
4.1 NDP: Annual Average Sectoral Growth Rates, 1970-1974 / 64 4.2 NDP: Projected Total Increases in Certain Economic Indicators, 1970-1974 / 65 4.3 NDP: Sectoral Allocations and Revenue, 1970-1974 / 65 4.4 NDP: Aggregate Sectoral Distribution of Planned Expenditures, 1970-1974 / 67 4.5 NDP: Distribution of Development Projects by Sector, 1970-1974 / 69 4.6 NDP: Revised Allocations, Actual Expenditures, and Revenue, 1970-1974 / 71 4.7 NDP: Target and Actual Values of Certain Economic Indicators, 1974 / 72 4.8 Sectoral Allocations under Annual Plans, 1976-1980 / 74
5.1 Investment Programs and Annual Plans, 1976-1983 / 82 5.2 Labor Force and Armed Forces, 1970-1988 / 92 5.3 Military Expenditures, Oil Revenue, and GDP, 1970-1989 / 93 5.4 Nonmilitary and Military Imports, 1970-1989 / 96 5.5 Changing Composition of GDP, 1975-1988 / 101
6.1 Estimates of Labor Earnings in Iraq, August 1991, Compared with Various Benchmarks / 124
7.1 Planned and Actual Development Expenditures, 1951-1980 / 142 8.1 Gross Domestic Product and GDP per Capita in Constant 1980 Prices, 1950-1993 / 152 |