Contents
Tables / xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Introduction / xv
1. The Evolution of Iraq’s Oil Industry / 1
Oil Concessions in Iraq and the Agreement of1952 / 2
The Growth of Output and Revenue / 2
Oil Output / 3
The Pricing of Iraq Crude Oil to 1950 / 4
Price Developments, 1950-1960 / 6
Nationalization and Oil Price Developments in the
OPEC Era / 8
The 1973 Oil Price Revolution / 10
The Emergence of Iraq's National Oil Industry / 12
Notes / 13
2. Oil and Development under the Monarchy, 1950-1958 / 17
The Development Board and Its Programs, 1950-1958 / 17
Planned versus Actual Development Spending,
1951/52-1957/58 / 19
Highlights of Allocations for Development, 1950-1958 / 21
The Development Board and the Agricultural Sector / 24
The Development Board and the Industrial Sector / 29
Notes / 33
3. Oil and Development Planning, 1958-1968 / 35
Development Planning in the Qasim Era, 1958-1963 / 36
Development Planning under the Are f Brothers / 43
The Economy’s Past Performance as a Guide for the Plan / 45
Sectoral Expenditure under the FYP / 46
Actual Performance of the FYP / 49
Notes / 52
4. The Baath Party and Its National Development Plans / 55
Evolution of Arab Nationalism / 55
The Political Economy of Arab Nationalism 58
The National Development Plan, 1970/71-1974/75 / 62
The Strategy of the Plan / 62
Quantitative Goals of the Plan / 63
Assessment of the National Development Plan / 68
The 1975 Investment Program / 71
Development Planning after 1975 / 72
Notes / 75
5. The Iran-Iraq War and the Demise of Development / 79
The War and the Iraqi Economy / 79
The War, Iraq’s Oil, and Saudi Arabia's Oil Policy / 83
The War and the Deterioration of the Iraqi Economy / 87
The War and the End of Development / 89
War Labor Mobilization and the Economy / 91
Military Expenditures and Iraq's GNP and Oil Revenue / 94
The War and Military and Nonmilitary Imports / 95
Privatization under War Conditions / 96
An Estimate of the Cost of the Destruction / 99
Notes / 103
6. The Invasion of Kuwait and the Destruction of Development / 105
Abundance of Problems versus Scarcity of Resources / 105
Government Borrowing, Money Supply, and Inflation / 106
The Emerging Problem of External Debt / 109
Military Industries and the Use of Scarce Resources / 109
OPEC Failure and the Iraq-Kuwait Oil Confrontation / 111
The Invasion and the Economic Sanctions / 118
An Estimate of Iraq's Human Losses / 120
An Estimate of Iraq's Economic Losses / 121
Impact on Personal Income, Consumption, and
Cost of Living / 123
Notes / 124
7. Iraq’s Economic Development, 1950-1990: An Assessment / 127
Evolution of the New State / 127
Regional and International Context 130
Ideological Dimensions / 133
An Assessment of Iraq's Development, 1950-1990 / 136
Development Problems, 1958-1980 / 139
Development Problems, 1980-1993 / 145
Notes / 147
8. What Economic Future for Iraq? / 151
Sanctions, Reparations, Debt, and Reconstruction / 151
The $586-Billion Question / 153
An Estimate of Oil Revenue to 2010 / 153
The Burden of Foreign Deb t / 157
The Burden of War Reparations / 158
United Nations Sanctions / 158
Other Claims on Scarce Resources / 159
The Continued Crisis of the Economy / 160
The Problem of Hyperinflation and the Exchange Rate / 164
What Economic Future for Iraq? / 167
Notes / 168
Selected Bibliography / 171
Index / 183
Tables
1.1 Oil Revenue, Oil Output, Gross Domestic Product, and Population, 1950-1990 / 11
2.1 General Programs of Development Board’s Projects / 18
2.2 Total Planned and Actual Development Expenditures and Revenues, 1951/52-1957/58 / 20
3.1 Provisional and Detailed Economic Plans / 38
3.2 Planned and Actual Development Expenditures, 1958/59-1962/63 / 40
3.3 Allocated, Budgeted, and Actual Expenditure and Revenue: Five-Year Plan, 1965/66-1969/70 / 47
3.4 Projected and Actual Growth Rates under the Five-Year Economic Plan, 1965-1969 / 50
4.1 NDP: Annual Average Sectoral Growth Rates, 1970-1974 / 64
4.2 NDP: Projected Total Increases in Certain Economic Indicators, 1970-1974 / 65
4.3 NDP: Sectoral Allocations and Revenue, 1970-1974 / 65
4.4 NDP: Aggregate Sectoral Distribution of Planned Expenditures, 1970-1974 / 67
4.5 NDP: Distribution of Development Projects by Sector, 1970-1974 / 69
4.6 NDP: Revised Allocations, Actual Expenditures, and Revenue, 1970-1974 / 71
4.7 NDP: Target and Actual Values of Certain Economic Indicators, 1974 / 72
4.8 Sectoral Allocations under Annual Plans, 1976-1980 / 74
5.1 Investment Programs and Annual Plans, 1976-1983 / 82
5.2 Labor Force and Armed Forces, 1970-1988 / 92
5.3 Military Expenditures, Oil Revenue, and GDP, 1970-1989 / 93
5.4 Nonmilitary and Military Imports, 1970-1989 / 96
5.5 Changing Composition of GDP, 1975-1988 / 101
6.1 Estimates of Labor Earnings in Iraq, August 1991,
Compared with Various Benchmarks / 124
7.1 Planned and Actual Development Expenditures, 1951-1980 / 142
8.1 Gross Domestic Product and GDP per Capita in Constant 1980 Prices, 1950-1993 / 152
|
